The OC Model

The Option Country model's locked plays this week, plus the season record against those numbers. ATS baseline is 52.4% at −110.

Read the weekly report card →

2026 season

ATS: 66–16 (80.5%)
Straight up: 46–36 (56.1%)
CLV: -0.93

: 39–9 ATS (81.3%)
: 27–7 ATS (79.4%)
: —

Week 0 plays

Game	Our pick	Edge	OC Spread	DraftKings
NC State @ Virginia	Virginia -4.0	9.5 pts	-13.5	-4.0
North Carolina @ TCU	North Carolina +7.5	8.0 pts	-0.5	+7.5
New Mexico State @ Florida State	New Mexico State +31.5	6.5 pts	+24.0	+30.5
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State	Jacksonville State +7.0	6.0 pts	+12.5	+6.5
San José State @ USC	San José State +37.5	5.0 pts	+32.5	+37.5
Memphis @ UNLV	Memphis +4.5	4.5 pts	-0.5	+4.0
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan	Sacramento State +9.0	1.0 pts	+8.5	+9.5

Graded leans

Wk	Game	Our pick	Close	ATS	CLV
1	North Carolina @ TCU	North Carolina +7.5	+7.5	✓	0.00
1	San José State @ USC	San José State +37.5	+37.5	✓	-0.08
1	NC State @ Virginia	Virginia -4.0	-4.0	✓	0.00
1	Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State	Jacksonville State +7.0	+6.5	✗	0.08
1	Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan	Sacramento State +9.0	+9.0	✗	0.00
1	New Mexico State @ Florida State	New Mexico State +31.5	+31.0	✓	0.25
1	Memphis @ UNLV	Memphis +4.5	+4.5	✓	0.00
1	Massachusetts @ Rutgers	Massachusetts +29.5	+29.5	✓	0.00
1	Akron @ Wake Forest	Akron +27.5	+27.5	✓	0.00
1	Colorado @ Georgia Tech	Colorado +6.5	+6.5	✓	0.00
1	San José State @ Eastern Michigan	San José State +1.5	+1.5	✓	0.00
1	UTEP @ Oklahoma	Oklahoma -40.5	-40.5	✓	0.00
1	Miami @ Stanford	Stanford +24.5	+24.5	✗	0.00
1	Fresno State @ USC	USC -22.0	-22.0	✓	0.00
1	East Carolina @ Alabama	East Carolina +28.5	+28.0	✗	0.50
1	Oregon State @ Houston	Oregon State +21.0	+21.0	✓	0.00
1	Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia	Coastal Carolina +21.5	+21.0	✓	0.50
1	North Texas @ Indiana	North Texas +41.0	+40.0	✓	0.92
1	Ohio @ Nebraska	Nebraska -23.5	-23.5	✓	0.00
1	Liberty @ James Madison	James Madison -6.0	-6.0	✓	0.00
1	Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -16.5	-16.5	✓	0.00
1	Ball State @ Ohio State	Ohio State -50.5	-50.5	✓	0.00
1	Kent State @ South Carolina	South Carolina -36.0	-36.0	✓	0.00
1	Baylor @ Auburn	Baylor +6.5	+6.5	✓	0.00
1	Texas State @ Texas	Texas -29.5	-29.5	✓	0.00
1	Boston College @ Cincinnati	Cincinnati -7.0	-7.0	✓	0.00
1	Tulane @ Duke	Duke -9.0	-9.0	✓	0.00
1	Boise State @ Oregon	Boise State +24.5	+24.5	✓	0.00
1	Marshall @ Penn State	Penn State -23.5	-23.5	✓	0.00
1	Oklahoma State @ Tulsa	Tulsa +13.5	+13.5	✓	0.00
1	Northern Illinois @ Iowa	Iowa -31.5	-31.5	✓	0.00
1	Wyoming @ Colorado State	Colorado State -2.5	-2.5	✓	0.00
1	Missouri State @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M -39.0	-39.0	✓	0.00
1	Arkansas State @ Memphis	Memphis -10.5	-10.5	✓	0.00
1	Sam Houston @ Troy	Sam Houston +16.0	+16.0	✓	0.00
1	Clemson @ LSU	LSU -10.0	-10.0	✓	0.00
1	UL Monroe @ Mississippi State	Mississippi State -28.5	-28.5	✓	0.00
1	Western Michigan @ Michigan	Western Michigan +27.5	+27.5	✓	0.00
1	Florida Atlantic @ Florida	Florida -26.0	-26.0	✓	0.00
1	UNLV @ Hawai'i	UNLV -3.0	-3.0	✓	0.00
1	Central Michigan @ New Mexico	New Mexico -11.0	-11.0	✓	0.25
1	UCLA @ California	California +2.5	+2.5	✗	0.00
1	Western Kentucky @ Nevada	Nevada +0.5	+0.5	✓	0.00
1	Washington State @ Washington	Washington State +23.5	+23.5	✓	0.17
1	Louisville @ Ole Miss	Louisville +6.5	+6.5	✓	0.00
1	Wisconsin @ Notre Dame	Notre Dame -21.0	-21.0	✓	0.00
2	Missouri @ Kansas	Missouri -4.0	-4.0	✓	0.00
2	Oklahoma @ Michigan	Michigan +5.0	+5.0	✓	0.00
2	Arizona State @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M -15.0	-15.0	✓	0.00
2	Washington State @ Kansas State	Kansas State -17.5	-17.5	✓	0.00
2	Oregon @ Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State +24.0	+24.0	✓	0.00
2	Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech -17.5	-17.5	✓	0.00
2	Penn State @ Temple	Temple +24.5	+24.5	✓	0.00
2	App State @ East Carolina	App State +6.5	+6.5	✓	0.00
2	Western Kentucky @ Georgia	Georgia -40.5	-40.5	✓	0.00
2	Alabama @ Kentucky	Alabama -8.5	-8.5	✓	0.00
2	Mississippi State @ Minnesota	Mississippi State +0.5	+0.5	✓	0.00
2	Arizona @ BYU	BYU -7.0	-7.0	✓	0.00
2	California @ Syracuse	Syracuse -3.5	-4.0	✗	0.33
2	Duke @ Illinois	Duke +6.5	+6.5	✓	0.00
2	Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State	Michigan State -17.5	-17.5	✓	0.00
2	Utah State @ Washington	Utah State +27.0	+28.5	✓	-1.50
2	Rice @ Notre Dame	Rice +44.5	+44.5	✗	-0.17
2	UTSA @ Texas State	UTSA +1.5	+2.0	✓	-0.33
2	UL Monroe @ UAB	UAB -10.0	-9.5	✗	-0.42
2	UNLV @ North Texas	UNLV -4.0	-3.0	✗	-0.92
2	Delaware @ Vanderbilt	Delaware +20.5	+20.5	✓	0.00
2	Buffalo @ Florida International	Buffalo +10.5	+8.5	✗	1.83
2	Jacksonville State @ Ohio	Jacksonville State +1.5	+1.5	✗	0.00
2	Bowling Green @ Nebraska	Nebraska -30.5	-30.5	✓	0.00
2	Georgia State @ Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State -8.5	-7.5	✗	-1.17
2	Middle Tennessee @ Marshall	Middle Tennessee +13.5	+12.5	✓	1.17
2	San Diego State @ UCLA	San Diego State +10.0	+13.5	✗	-3.50
2	Texas Tech @ Oregon State	Oregon State +25.5	+25.5	✓	0.00
2	Georgia Southern @ Clemson	Georgia Southern +20.5	+20.0	✓	0.67
2	Navy @ Florida Atlantic	Navy -5.0	-4.5	✗	-0.42
2	Louisiana Tech @ LSU	Louisiana Tech +35.5	+34.5	✓	0.58
2	Southern Miss @ Auburn	Southern Miss +29.5	+32.5	✗	-3.17
2	Charlotte @ Ole Miss	Charlotte +47.5	+44.5	✓	3.00
2	Arkansas @ Utah	Utah -13.0	-13.0	✓	0.00
2	Sacramento State @ Fresno State	Sacramento State +18.5	+18.0	✗	0.42
2	Louisiana @ USC	Louisiana +31.0	+30.5	✓	0.08