Middle Tennessee @ Marshall
9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 79° · Wind 2 mph · Rain Shower · 26–28 F
Our pick Middle Tennessee +13.5Covered by 11.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -17.5 → now -12.5 · total 56.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -13.0 | 55.5 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 | 56.5 |
Marshall ML · Model 74% · Book 83% · value Middle Tennessee
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Middle Tennessee +13.5OC Spread Marshall -7.5OC Total 58.55.0 pts vs market
Middle TennesseePower ratingsMarshall
SP+Marshall by 4.5
-15.2
-10.7
FPIMarshall by 3.5
-17.3
-13.8
Elo (pts)Marshall by 9.0
-14.3
-5.3
COREMiddle Tennessee by 0.1
-10.8
-10.8
WEPAMiddle Tennessee by 0.2
-8.0
-8.3
SRSMarshall by 0.6
-14.4
-13.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Marshall's side
Game recap
| Metric | Middle Tennessee | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.429 | 0.435 |
| Explosiveness | 1.040 | 1.010 |
| Havoc | 0.177 | 0.129 |
| PPA | 0.170 | 0.012 |
| Field position | 73.100 | 68.100 |
Passing
- Roman Gagliano · Middle Tennessee25/47 · 243 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Zion Turner · Marshall5/9 · 66 yds · 12.6 aDOT
- Khalil Wilkins · Marshall3/6 · 23 yds · 15.3 aDOT