Buffalo @ Florida International
9/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 81° · Wind 2 mph · Heavy Rain Shower · 20–33 F
Our pick Buffalo +10.5Did not cover by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.5 → now -9.0 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -8.5 | 47.5 |
| Bovada | -9.0 | 47.5 |
Florida International ML · Model 72% · Book 76%
Buffalo travels 1195 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Buffalo +10.5OC Spread Florida International -7.0OC Total 49.51.9 pts vs market
BuffaloPower ratingsFlorida International
SP+Florida International by 4.1
-12.0
-7.9
FPIBuffalo by 0.1
-13.2
-13.2
Elo (pts)Buffalo by 1.0
-5.5
-6.5
COREFlorida International by 3.6
-14.9
-11.3
WEPAFlorida International by 0.9
-5.4
-4.4
SRSFlorida International by 2.9
-14.6
-11.7
Game recap
| Metric | Buffalo | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.243 | 0.400 |
| Explosiveness | 1.800 | 1.350 |
| Havoc | 0.150 | 0.186 |
| PPA | 0.046 | 0.181 |
| Field position | 74.200 | 64.600 |
Passing
- J.J. Kohl · Florida International21/37 · 367 yds · 10.4 aDOT
- Jason Wright · Buffalo13/27 · 185 yds · 14.0 aDOT
- Elijah Holmes · Buffalo10/15 · 63 yds · 5.2 aDOT
- JoJo Stone · Florida International1/1 · 19 yds · 16.0 aDOT