Buffalo @ No. 14 Penn State
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM · BTN · 65° · Wind 5 mph · Cloudy · 13–55 F
Our pick Buffalo +39.5Did not cover by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -39.5 → now -39.5 · total 48.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -39.5 | 48.5 |
| Bovada | -40.0 | 48.0 |
| Draft Kings | -39.5 | 48.5 |
Penn State ML · Model 100%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Buffalo +39.5OC Spread Penn State -37.5OC Total 48.52.1 pts vs market
BuffaloPower ratingsPenn State
SP+Penn State by 21.3
-12.0
9.3
FPIPenn State by 25.4
-13.2
12.2
Elo (pts)Penn State by 17.4
-5.5
11.9
COREPenn State by 22.4
-14.9
7.5
WEPAPenn State by 10.9
-5.4
5.5
SRSPenn State by 21.4
-14.6
6.8
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 3-1 · ATS 0-0 from Penn State's side
- 2019 · Penn State 45–13unpriced
- 2015 · Penn State 27–14unpriced
- 2007 · Penn State 45–24unpriced
- 1900 · Penn State 0–10unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Buffalo | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.103 | 0.476 |
| Explosiveness | 1.370 | 1.720 |
| Havoc | 0.167 | 0.333 |
| PPA | -0.238 | 0.557 |
| Field position | 76.700 | 60.100 |
Passing
- Jason Wright · Buffalo10/25 · 60 yds · 6.4 aDOT
- Rocco Becht · Penn State11/19 · 212 yds · 10.0 aDOT
- Alex Manske · Penn State3/6 · 45 yds · 11.8 aDOT
- Connor Barry · Penn State1/1 · 12 yds · 6.0 aDOT