Marshall @ No. 18 Penn State
9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM · FS1 · 79° · Wind 4 mph · Fair · 0–45 F
Our pick Penn State -23.5Covered by 21.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -24.5 → now -23.5 · total 53.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -23.0 | 52.0 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 | 53.5 |
Penn State ML · Model 95% · Book 92%
Marshall off a byePenn State off a byeMarshall +28 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Penn State -23.5OC Spread Penn State -27.0OC Total 53.53.6 pts vs market
Win probability
Marshall 5%Penn State 95%
MarshallPower ratingsPenn State
SP+Penn State by 20.0
-10.7
9.3
FPIPenn State by 26.0
-13.8
12.2
Elo (pts)Penn State by 17.2
-5.3
11.9
COREPenn State by 18.4
-10.8
7.5
WEPAPenn State by 13.8
-8.3
5.5
SRSPenn State by 20.6
-13.8
6.8
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 2-0 · ATS 0-0 from Penn State's side
- 1930 · Penn State 65–0unpriced
- 1929 · Penn State 26–7unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Marshall | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.306 | 0.538 |
| Explosiveness | 1.040 | 1.540 |
| Havoc | 0.179 | 0.389 |
| PPA | -0.075 | 0.632 |
| Field position | 77.300 | 64.900 |
Passing
- Rocco Becht · Penn State13/18 · 271 yds · 10.5 aDOT
- Alex Manske · Penn State6/8 · 57 yds · 4.6 aDOT
- Zion Turner · Marshall2/3 · 1 yds · 5.0 aDOT
- Connor Barry · Penn State1/1 · -4 yds · -4.0 aDOT