North Carolina @ No. 23 Duke
10/17/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 55° · Wind 6 mph · Overcast · 24–20 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.5 → now -3.0 · total 47.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 47.0 |
Duke ML · Model 62% · Book 60%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Duke -3.5OC Total 51.50.4 pts vs market
North CarolinaPower ratingsDuke
SP+Duke by 3.1
3.7
6.8
FPIDuke by 1.7
8.6
10.3
Elo (pts)Duke by 10.3
-0.6
9.8
COREDuke by 8.2
2.8
11.0
WEPADuke by 5.4
3.0
8.4
SRSNorth Carolina by 0.8
7.9
7.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Duke's side
Game recap
| Metric | North Carolina | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.462 | 0.403 |
| Explosiveness | 1.050 | 1.210 |
| Havoc | 0.125 | 0.108 |
| PPA | 0.120 | 0.081 |
| Field position | 74.500 | 69.100 |
Passing
- Walker Eget · Duke24/40 · 249 yds · 4.9 aDOT
- Billy Edwards · North Carolina15/25 · 196 yds · 7.4 aDOT
- Dan Mahan · Duke0/1 · 0 yds · 9.0 aDOT