Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State
9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 69° · Wind 0 mph · Cloudy · 13–23 F
Our pick Jacksonville State -7.5Covered by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -9.5 → now -7.0 · total 51.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7.0 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -7.0 | 51.5 |
Jacksonville State ML · Model 84% · Book 73% · value Jacksonville State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Jacksonville State -7.5OC Spread Jacksonville State -11.5OC Total 53.54.4 pts vs market
Middle TennesseePower ratingsJacksonville State
SP+Jacksonville State by 12.6
-15.2
-2.6
FPIJacksonville State by 10.5
-17.3
-6.8
Elo (pts)Jacksonville State by 13.2
-14.3
-1.1
COREJacksonville State by 9.4
-10.8
-1.3
WEPAJacksonville State by 8.7
-8.0
0.7
SRSJacksonville State by 9.4
-14.4
-5.0
Head-to-head
Last 3: SU 3-0 · ATS 0-0 from Jacksonville State's side
- 2025 · Jacksonville State 24–21unpriced
- 2024 · Jacksonville State 42–20unpriced
- 2023 · Jacksonville State 45–30unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.431 | 0.559 |
| Explosiveness | 1.110 | 1.040 |
| Havoc | 0.074 | 0.190 |
| PPA | 0.115 | 0.183 |
| Field position | 81.800 | 73.700 |
Passing
- Roman Gagliano · Middle Tennessee18/28 · 216 yds · 7.2 aDOT
- Caden Creel · Jacksonville State19/27 · 241 yds · 7.7 aDOT