Option Country
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Bowling Green @ Buffalo

10/24/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 64° · Wind 2 mph · Fair · 24–31 F

Our pick Buffalo -3.5Covered by 3.5

Line movement

Home spread. Open -4.5 → now -3.0 · total 45.0

Books

BookSpreadTotal
Bovada-3.045.0
DraftKings-3.044.5

Buffalo ML · Model 76% · Book 62% · value Buffalo

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Buffalo -3.5OC Spread Buffalo -8.0OC Total 47.05.1 pts vs market
Bowling GreenPower ratingsBuffalo
SP+Buffalo by 6.2
-18.2
-12.0
FPIBuffalo by 4.4
-17.6
-13.2
Elo (pts)Buffalo by 5.5
-11.0
-5.5
COREBowling Green by 1.1
-13.8
-14.9
WEPABuffalo by 3.1
-8.5
-5.4
SRSBuffalo by 0.4
-15.0
-14.6

Game recap

MetricBowling GreenBuffalo
Success rate0.4690.413
Explosiveness1.1201.430
Havoc0.1430.156
PPA0.1560.206
Field position71.40065.700

Passing

  • Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green19/27 · 217 yds · 6.9 aDOT
  • Jason Wright · Buffalo13/21 · 127 yds · 7.9 aDOT

Win probability