Bowling Green @ Buffalo
10/24/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 64° · Wind 2 mph · Fair · 24–31 F
Our pick Buffalo -3.5Covered by 3.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.5 → now -3.0 · total 45.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -3.0 | 45.0 |
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 44.5 |
Buffalo ML · Model 76% · Book 62% · value Buffalo
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Buffalo -3.5OC Spread Buffalo -8.0OC Total 47.05.1 pts vs market
Bowling GreenPower ratingsBuffalo
SP+Buffalo by 6.2
-18.2
-12.0
FPIBuffalo by 4.4
-17.6
-13.2
Elo (pts)Buffalo by 5.5
-11.0
-5.5
COREBowling Green by 1.1
-13.8
-14.9
WEPABuffalo by 3.1
-8.5
-5.4
SRSBuffalo by 0.4
-15.0
-14.6
Game recap
| Metric | Bowling Green | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.469 | 0.413 |
| Explosiveness | 1.120 | 1.430 |
| Havoc | 0.143 | 0.156 |
| PPA | 0.156 | 0.206 |
| Field position | 71.400 | 65.700 |
Passing
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green19/27 · 217 yds · 6.9 aDOT
- Jason Wright · Buffalo13/21 · 127 yds · 7.9 aDOT
