Massachusetts @ Buffalo
10/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 45° · Wind 6 mph · Fair · 18–25 F
Our pick Massachusetts +6.5Did not cover by 0.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -7.0 · total 43.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -7.0 | 42.5 |
Buffalo ML · Model 56% · Book 65% · value Massachusetts
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Massachusetts +6.5OC Spread Buffalo -1.5OC Total 46.55.2 pts vs market
MassachusettsPower ratingsBuffalo
SP+Massachusetts by 0.9
-11.1
-12.0
FPIBuffalo by 1.6
-14.7
-13.2
Elo (pts)Buffalo by 9.6
-15.1
-5.5
COREMassachusetts by 6.1
-8.7
-14.9
WEPAMassachusetts by 1.7
-3.7
-5.4
SRSMassachusetts by 0.7
-13.9
-14.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Buffalo's side
Game recap
| Metric | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.403 | 0.370 |
| Explosiveness | 0.960 | 1.010 |
| Havoc | 0.160 | 0.208 |
| PPA | -0.063 | -0.007 |
| Field position | 71.500 | 65.400 |
Passing
- Jason Wright · Buffalo15/34 · 119 yds · 10.2 aDOT
- Logan Inagawa · Massachusetts14/25 · 168 yds · 8.6 aDOT