Buffalo @ Toledo
10/10/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 72° · Wind 3 mph · Cloudy · 23–8 F
Our pick Buffalo +19.0Covered by 34.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -19.5 → now -19.0 · total 55.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -19.0 | 55.5 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 | 54.5 |
Toledo ML · Model 85% · Book 88%
Ratings matchup
Our pick Buffalo +19.0OC Spread Toledo -12.5OC Total 47.06.4 pts vs market
BuffaloPower ratingsToledo
SP+Toledo by 14.0
-12.0
2.0
FPIToledo by 10.7
-13.2
-2.5
Elo (pts)Toledo by 7.6
-5.5
2.2
COREToledo by 20.6
-14.9
5.8
WEPAToledo by 10.5
-5.4
5.1
SRSToledo by 14.4
-14.6
-0.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Toledo's side
Game recap
| Metric | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.338 | 0.344 |
| Explosiveness | 1.200 | 1.080 |
| Havoc | 0.164 | 0.150 |
| PPA | 0.076 | 0.090 |
| Field position | 68.800 | 78.300 |
Passing
- John Alan Richter · Toledo22/36 · 203 yds · 7.0 aDOT
- Jason Wright · Buffalo14/31 · 171 yds · 10.9 aDOT