Western Michigan @ Buffalo
10/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 63° · Wind 6 mph · Fair · 20–17 F
Our pick Buffalo +13.5Covered by 10.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +16.5 → now +13.5 · total 46.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +13.5 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | +13.0 | 46.0 |
Buffalo ML · Model 21% · Book 18%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Buffalo +13.5OC Spread Buffalo +9.0OC Total 46.04.1 pts vs market
Western MichiganPower ratingsBuffalo
SP+Western Michigan by 9.3
-2.7
-12.0
FPIWestern Michigan by 9.5
-3.6
-13.2
Elo (pts)Western Michigan by 4.9
-0.6
-5.5
COREWestern Michigan by 8.7
-6.2
-14.9
WEPAWestern Michigan by 3.9
-1.4
-5.4
SRSWestern Michigan by 12.4
-2.2
-14.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Buffalo's side
Game recap
| Metric | Western Michigan | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.475 | 0.426 |
| Explosiveness | 0.880 | 1.080 |
| Havoc | 0.147 | 0.148 |
| PPA | 0.115 | 0.077 |
| Field position | 77.400 | 73.300 |
Passing
- Broc Lowry · Western Michigan19/24 · 212 yds · 4.8 aDOT
- Jason Wright · Buffalo11/18 · 170 yds · 11.1 aDOT
- Messiah Burch · Buffalo2/2 · -3 yds · -2.5 aDOT