App State @ East Carolina
9/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPNU · 84° · Wind 1 mph · Cloudy · 27–24 F
Our pick App State +6.5Covered by 9.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -11.5 → now -6.5 · total 56.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -6.5 | 56.0 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 | 55.5 |
East Carolina ML · Model 60% · Book 72% · value App State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick App State +6.5OC Spread East Carolina -2.5OC Total 53.03.8 pts vs market
App StatePower ratingsEast Carolina
SP+East Carolina by 0.9
-4.9
-4.0
FPIEast Carolina by 4.6
-8.4
-3.8
Elo (pts)East Carolina by 6.2
-8.7
-2.5
COREEast Carolina by 7.8
-8.8
-1.1
WEPAEast Carolina by 1.8
-4.6
-2.8
SRSApp State by 0.5
-8.1
-8.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from East Carolina's side
- 2024 · East Carolina 19–21unpriced
- 2023 · East Carolina 28–43unpriced
- 2021 · East Carolina 19–33unpriced
- 2012 · East Carolina 35–13unpriced
- 2009 · East Carolina 29–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | App State | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.384 | 0.493 |
| Explosiveness | 1.400 | 1.150 |
| Havoc | 0.178 | 0.151 |
| PPA | 0.170 | 0.292 |
| Field position | 62.900 | 77.200 |
Passing
- Mitch Griffis · East Carolina21/38 · 230 yds · 11.1 aDOT
- Malachi Singleton · App State20/28 · 267 yds · 7.4 aDOT