Nevada @ Middle Tennessee
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 95° · Wind 0 mph · Heavy Rain Shower · 20–27 F
Our pick Nevada -6.0Did not cover by 13.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +6.0 → now +3.5 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | +4.0 | 50.5 |
| Draft Kings | +3.5 | 50.5 |
Middle Tennessee ML · Model 37% · Book 36%
Nevada travels 1836 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Nevada -6.0OC Spread Middle Tennessee +4.0OC Total 50.50.2 pts vs market
NevadaPower ratingsMiddle Tennessee
SP+Nevada by 12.1
-3.1
-15.2
FPINevada by 9.1
-8.2
-17.3
Elo (pts)Nevada by 10.6
-3.7
-14.3
CORENevada by 2.5
-8.3
-10.8
WEPANevada by 4.1
-3.9
-8.0
SRSNevada by 7.2
-7.2
-14.4
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Middle Tennessee's side
- 2025 · Middle Tennessee 14–13unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Nevada | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.362 | 0.362 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 1.260 |
| Havoc | 0.072 | 0.121 |
| PPA | 0 | 0.154 |
| Field position | 69.100 | 67 |
Passing
- Roman Gagliano · Middle Tennessee16/29 · 173 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- Carter Jones · Nevada16/26 · 185 yds · 3.5 aDOT