Wisconsin @ No. 13 Penn State
9/26/2026, 9:00:00 PM · ERADM · 65° · Wind 6 mph · Cloudy · 24–20 F
Our pick Penn State -11.5Did not cover by 15.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -11.5 → now -10.0 · total 44.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -9.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -10.0 | 44.0 |
Penn State ML · Model 84% · Book 76% · value Penn State
Wisconsin travels 614 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Penn State -11.5OC Spread Penn State -11.5OC Total 46.01.9 pts vs market
WisconsinPower ratingsPenn State
SP+Penn State by 0.6
8.7
9.3
FPIPenn State by 3.7
8.5
12.2
Elo (pts)Penn State by 6.1
5.8
11.9
COREWisconsin by 6.9
14.4
7.5
WEPAWisconsin by 3.7
9.3
5.5
SRSWisconsin by 1.3
8.1
6.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Penn State's side
- 2024 · Penn State 28–13unpriced
- 2021 · Penn State 16–10unpriced
- 2018 · Penn State 22–10unpriced
- 2016 · Penn State 38–31unpriced
- 2013 · Penn State 31–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Wisconsin | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.364 | 0.250 |
| Explosiveness | 1.480 | 1.080 |
| Havoc | 0.206 | 0.212 |
| PPA | -0.034 | -0.171 |
| Field position | 71.300 | 69.500 |
Passing
- Colton Joseph · Wisconsin18/38 · 235 yds · 6.6 aDOT
- Rocco Becht · Penn State12/29 · 114 yds · 14.1 aDOT