Option Country
← Week 9 board

No. 1 Miami @ North Carolina

10/31/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ABC · 55° · Wind 2 mph · Overcast · 38–35 F

Our pick Miami -14.5Did not cover by 11.5

Line movement

Home spread. Open +14.5 → now +14.0 · total 53.0

Books

BookSpreadTotal
DraftKings+13.552.5
Bovada+14.053.5

North Carolina ML · Model 9% · Book 17% · value Miami

Miami travels 691 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Miami -14.5OC Spread North Carolina +16.0OC Total 53.02.5 pts vs market
MiamiPower ratingsNorth Carolina
SP+Miami by 21.0
24.7
3.7
FPIMiami by 17.5
26.1
8.6
Elo (pts)Miami by 20.3
19.7
-0.6
COREMiami by 13.8
16.6
2.8
WEPAMiami by 10.4
13.4
3.0
SRSMiami by 12.3
20.2
7.9

Game recap

MetricMiamiNorth Carolina
Success rate0.5810.612
Explosiveness1.0801.150
Havoc0.1040.032
PPA0.4360.358
Field position66.30076.100

Passing

  • Billy Edwards · North Carolina28/34 · 341 yds · 5.3 aDOT
  • Darian Mensah · Miami22/29 · 274 yds · 6.8 aDOT

Win probability