No. 1 Miami @ North Carolina
10/31/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ABC · 55° · Wind 2 mph · Overcast · 38–35 F
Our pick Miami -14.5Did not cover by 11.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +14.5 → now +14.0 · total 53.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +13.5 | 52.5 |
| Bovada | +14.0 | 53.5 |
North Carolina ML · Model 9% · Book 17% · value Miami
Miami travels 691 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Miami -14.5OC Spread North Carolina +16.0OC Total 53.02.5 pts vs market
MiamiPower ratingsNorth Carolina
SP+Miami by 21.0
24.7
3.7
FPIMiami by 17.5
26.1
8.6
Elo (pts)Miami by 20.3
19.7
-0.6
COREMiami by 13.8
16.6
2.8
WEPAMiami by 10.4
13.4
3.0
SRSMiami by 12.3
20.2
7.9
Game recap
| Metric | Miami | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.581 | 0.612 |
| Explosiveness | 1.080 | 1.150 |
| Havoc | 0.104 | 0.032 |
| PPA | 0.436 | 0.358 |
| Field position | 66.300 | 76.100 |
Passing
- Billy Edwards · North Carolina28/34 · 341 yds · 5.3 aDOT
- Darian Mensah · Miami22/29 · 274 yds · 6.8 aDOT
