No. 23 Duke @ No. 25 Virginia
10/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN · 53° · Wind 0 mph · Clear · 19–16 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -2.5 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -2.5 | 47.5 |
| Bovada | -2.5 | 47.0 |
Virginia ML · Model 55% · Book 37% · value Virginia
Ratings matchup
OC Spread Virginia -1.5OC Total 50.51.2 pts vs market
DukePower ratingsVirginia
SP+Duke by 1.0
6.8
5.8
FPIDuke by 6.7
10.3
3.7
Elo (pts)Duke by 10.7
9.8
-1.0
COREDuke by 19.1
11.0
-8.1
WEPADuke by 11.8
8.4
-3.4
SRSDuke by 6.0
7.1
1.1
Game recap
| Metric | Duke | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.360 | 0.338 |
| Explosiveness | 1.460 | 1.240 |
| Havoc | 0.175 | 0.180 |
| PPA | 0.058 | -0.080 |
| Field position | 71.300 | 75.100 |
Passing
- Walker Eget · Duke14/25 · 211 yds · 11.4 aDOT
- Beau Pribula · Virginia15/24 · 158 yds · 10.3 aDOT
- Dan Mahan · Duke2/5 · 17 yds · 13.0 aDOT
- Nate Sheppard · Duke1/1 · 28 yds · 27.0 aDOT