Wake Forest @ NC State
10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM · CW · 68° · Wind 4 mph · Light Rain · 38–14 F
Our pick Wake Forest -4.0Covered by 20.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +3.5 → now +4.0 · total 56.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +3.5 | 56.5 |
| DraftKings | +4.0 | 56.5 |
NC State ML · Model 20% · Book 39% · value Wake Forest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Wake Forest -4.0OC Spread NC State +9.5OC Total 57.55.9 pts vs market
Wake ForestPower ratingsNC State
SP+Wake Forest by 13.1
12.2
-0.9
FPIWake Forest by 16.3
17.4
1.1
Elo (pts)Wake Forest by 15.2
14.8
-0.3
COREWake Forest by 26.8
18.7
-8.1
WEPAWake Forest by 20.2
14.6
-5.6
SRSWake Forest by 16.1
14.9
-1.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from NC State's side
Game recap
| Metric | Wake Forest | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.470 | 0.386 |
| Explosiveness | 1.310 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.250 | 0.091 |
| PPA | 0.265 | 0.021 |
| Field position | 68.500 | 72.600 |
Passing
- CJ Bailey · NC State28/39 · 256 yds · 6.4 aDOT
- Giovanni Lopez · Wake Forest26/33 · 303 yds · 9.1 aDOT
- Will Wilson · NC State1/1 · 2 yds · 2.0 aDOT