North Carolina @ No. 25 Pittsburgh
10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 68° · Wind 4 mph · Overcast · 21–17 F
Our pick Pittsburgh -4.0Did not cover by 8.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.0 → now -3.5 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -3.5 | 47.5 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 | 47.5 |
Pittsburgh ML · Model 72% · Book 62% · value Pittsburgh
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Pittsburgh -4.0OC Spread Pittsburgh -6.5OC Total 48.53.1 pts vs market
North CarolinaPower ratingsPittsburgh
SP+Pittsburgh by 4.2
3.7
7.9
FPINorth Carolina by 0.3
8.6
8.4
Elo (pts)Pittsburgh by 5.6
-0.6
5.0
CORENorth Carolina by 1.6
2.8
1.2
WEPANorth Carolina by 0.7
3.0
2.3
SRSNorth Carolina by 2.3
7.9
5.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Pittsburgh's side
- 2024 · Pittsburgh 34–24unpriced
- 2023 · Pittsburgh 24–41unpriced
- 2022 · Pittsburgh 24–42unpriced
- 2021 · Pittsburgh 30–23unpriced
- 2019 · Pittsburgh 34–27unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.358 | 0.407 |
| Explosiveness | 1.220 | 0.910 |
| Havoc | 0.116 | 0.226 |
| PPA | -0.060 | -0.145 |
| Field position | 66.500 | 68.600 |
Passing
- Billy Edwards · North Carolina18/26 · 249 yds · 6.7 aDOT