No. 3 Notre Dame @ North Carolina
10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 73° · Wind 6 mph · Overcast · 37–26 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +23.5 → now +21.0 · total 46.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +21.0 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | +21.0 | 46.5 |
North Carolina ML · Model 5% · Book 9%
North Carolina off a byeNorth Carolina +8 days restNotre Dame travels 556 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread North Carolina +20.0OC Total 49.01.0 pts vs market
Notre DamePower ratingsNorth Carolina
SP+Notre Dame by 21.5
25.2
3.7
FPINotre Dame by 18.2
26.8
8.6
Elo (pts)Notre Dame by 23.5
22.9
-0.6
CORENotre Dame by 29.9
32.8
2.8
WEPANotre Dame by 14.2
17.2
3.0
SRSNotre Dame by 13.2
21.1
7.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 0-5 · ATS 0-0 from North Carolina's side
- 2022 · North Carolina 32–45unpriced
- 2021 · North Carolina 34–44unpriced
- 2020 · North Carolina 17–31unpriced
- 2017 · North Carolina 10–33unpriced
- 2014 · North Carolina 43–50unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.551 | 0.373 |
| Explosiveness | 1.010 | 1.460 |
| Havoc | 0.216 | 0.103 |
| PPA | 0.275 | 0.172 |
| Field position | 62.800 | 77.300 |
Passing
- C.J. Carr · Notre Dame21/30 · 234 yds · 7.9 aDOT
- Billy Edwards · North Carolina17/28 · 208 yds · 8.4 aDOT