No. 16 Louisville @ NC State
10/3/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ACC Network · 66° · Wind 6 mph · Light Rain · 28–31 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.5 → now +4.5 · total 57.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 | 56.5 |
| Bovada | +3.0 | 57.5 |
NC State ML · Model 37% · Book 33%
Louisville travels 422 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread NC State +4.0OC Total 60.50.4 pts vs market
LouisvillePower ratingsNC State
SP+Louisville by 13.1
12.2
-0.9
FPILouisville by 13.1
14.2
1.1
Elo (pts)Louisville by 9.4
9.0
-0.3
CORELouisville by 22.0
13.9
-8.1
WEPALouisville by 15.6
10.0
-5.6
SRSLouisville by 13.8
12.6
-1.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from NC State's side
Game recap
| Metric | Louisville | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.481 | 0.398 |
| Explosiveness | 1.500 | 1.450 |
| Havoc | 0.133 | 0.296 |
| PPA | 0.238 | 0.295 |
| Field position | 74 | 74.100 |
Passing
- CJ Bailey · NC State24/40 · 373 yds · 10.9 aDOT
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville21/30 · 254 yds · 9.4 aDOT
- Joshisa Trader · NC State1/1 · 0 yds · -8.0 aDOT