Duke @ Illinois
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · FS1 · 88° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 31–27 F
Our pick Duke +6.5Covered by 10.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -8.5 → now -6.5 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -6.5 | 51.5 |
| Draft Kings | -6.0 | 51.5 |
Illinois ML · Model 55% · Book 68% · value Duke
Duke travels 579 mi
Ratings matchup
Our pick Duke +6.5OC Spread Illinois -1.5OC Total 57.04.8 pts vs market
DukePower ratingsIllinois
SP+Illinois by 0.3
6.9
7.2
FPIDuke by 2.1
6.6
4.5
Elo (pts)Duke by 1.0
4.5
3.6
COREIllinois by 0.2
3.0
3.2
Head-to-head
Last 3: SU 2-1 · ATS 0-0 from Illinois's side
Game recap
| Metric | Duke | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.456 | 0.486 |
| Explosiveness | 1.330 | 1.090 |
| Havoc | 0.057 | 0.105 |
| PPA | 0.403 | 0.172 |
| Field position | 69.800 | 71.900 |
Passing
- Katin Houser · Illinois24/36 · 271 yds · 9.0 aDOT
- Walker Eget · Duke15/21 · 216 yds · 9.6 aDOT
- Dan Mahan · Duke0/1 · 0 yds · -5.0 aDOT