NC State @ Virginia
8/29/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN · 80° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 8–34 F
Our pick Virginia -4.0Covered by 22.0
Our total Over 50.5Did not cover by 8.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.0 → now -4.0 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -4.0 | 50.5 |
| Draft Kings | -4.0 | 50.5 |
| DraftKings | -4.0 | 50.5 |
Virginia ML · Model 61% · Book 60%
NC State off a byeVirginia off a byeNC State +9 days rest
Ratings matchup
Our pick Virginia -4.0Our total Over 50.5OC Spread Virginia -13.5OC Total 50.59.6 pts vs market
Win probability
NC State 39%Virginia 61%
NC StatePower ratingsVirginia
SP+Virginia by 4.7
8.0
12.7
FPIVirginia by 10.1
2.4
12.6
Elo (pts)Virginia by 5.7
0.4
6.1
COREVirginia by 6.4
-1.6
4.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Virginia's side
Game recap
| Metric | NC State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.342 | 0.508 |
| Explosiveness | 0.520 | 1.090 |
| Havoc | 0.062 | 0.342 |
| PPA | -0.137 | 0.318 |
| Field position | 72.600 | 71 |
Passing
- CJ Bailey · NC State12/23 · 84 yds · 9.8 aDOT
- Beau Pribula · Virginia9/11 · 155 yds · 11.0 aDOT
- Will Wilson · NC State3/4 · 8 yds · -0.2 aDOT