NC State @ Virginia
8/29/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN · 80° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 8–34 F
Our pick Virginia -4.0Covered by 22.0
Our total Over 50.5Did not cover by 8.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.0 → now -4.0 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -4.0 | 50.5 |
| DraftKings | -4.0 | 50.5 |
Virginia ML · Model 61% · Book 60%
NC State off a byeVirginia off a byeNC State +9 days rest
Ratings matchup
Our pick Virginia -4.0Our total Over 50.5OC Spread Virginia -9.0OC Total 55.04.9 pts vs market
Win probability
NC State 39%Virginia 61%
NC StatePower ratingsVirginia
SP+Virginia by 6.7
-0.9
5.8
FPIVirginia by 2.6
1.1
3.7
Elo (pts)NC State by 0.6
-0.3
-1.0
COREeven
-8.1
-8.1
WEPAVirginia by 2.2
-5.6
-3.4
SRSVirginia by 2.3
-1.2
1.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Virginia's side
Game recap
| Metric | NC State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.342 | 0.508 |
| Explosiveness | 0.520 | 1.090 |
| Havoc | 0.062 | 0.342 |
| PPA | -0.137 | 0.318 |
| Field position | 72.600 | 71 |
Passing
- CJ Bailey · NC State12/23 · 84 yds · 9.8 aDOT
- Beau Pribula · Virginia9/11 · 155 yds · 11.0 aDOT
- Will Wilson · NC State3/4 · 8 yds · -0.2 aDOT