Middle Tennessee @ Kansas
10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPNU · 70° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 0–55 F
Our pick Middle Tennessee +21.0Did not cover by 34.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -21.0 → now -21.0 · total 51.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -20.5 | 50.5 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 | 51.5 |
Kansas ML · Model 97% · Book 90% · value Kansas
Kansas off a byeKansas +8 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Middle Tennessee +21.0OC Spread Kansas -24.5OC Total 52.03.3 pts vs market
Middle TennesseePower ratingsKansas
SP+Kansas by 18.0
-15.2
2.8
FPIKansas by 21.9
-17.3
4.6
Elo (pts)Kansas by 17.8
-14.3
3.5
COREKansas by 13.2
-10.8
2.4
WEPAKansas by 11.4
-8.0
3.4
SRSKansas by 17.0
-14.4
2.6
Game recap
| Metric | Middle Tennessee | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.161 | 0.610 |
| Explosiveness | 1.140 | 1.060 |
| Havoc | 0.085 | 0.452 |
| PPA | -0.505 | 0.430 |
| Field position | 71.300 | 71.900 |
Passing
- Roman Gagliano · Middle Tennessee9/26 · 81 yds · 9.2 aDOT
- Isaiah Marshall · Kansas13/22 · 161 yds · 11.5 aDOT
- Chase Jenkins · Kansas3/3 · 65 yds · 9.0 aDOT