North Carolina vs TCU
8/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 64° · Wind 7 mph · Overcast · 15–10 F
Our pick North Carolina +7.5Covered by 12.5
Our total Over 46.5Did not cover by 21.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -8.0 → now -7.5 · total 46.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Draft Kings | -7.5 | 46.5 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | -7.5 | 46.0 |
TCU ML · Model 70% · Book 70%
North Carolina off a byeTCU off a byeNorth Carolina +31 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick North Carolina +7.5Our total Over 46.5OC Spread TCU +0.5OC Total 47.08.2 pts vs market
Win probability
North Carolina 30%TCU 70%
North CarolinaPower ratingsTCU
SP+TCU by 4.9
6.4
11.3
FPIeven
6.3
6.3
Elo (pts)TCU by 8.1
-4.2
3.9
COREeven
1.6
1.6
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 1-3 · ATS 0-0 from TCU's side
Game recap
| Metric | North Carolina | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.466 | 0.333 |
| Explosiveness | 0.920 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.153 | 0.155 |
| PPA | 0.107 | -0.046 |
| Field position | 73.300 | 64.800 |
Passing
- Jaden Craig · TCU20/32 · 175 yds · 6.2 aDOT
- Billy Edwards · North Carolina16/28 · 232 yds · 8.6 aDOT