East Carolina @ No. 13 Alabama
9/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ABC · 98° · Wind 6 mph · Clear · 10–48 F
Our pick East Carolina +28.5Did not cover by 9.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -28.5 → now -28.5 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -28.0 | 52.5 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 | 52.5 |
Alabama ML · Model 98% · Book 94%
East Carolina off a byeAlabama off a byeEast Carolina +6 days restEast Carolina travels 603 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick East Carolina +28.5OC Spread Alabama -30.0OC Total 51.01.6 pts vs market
Win probability
East Carolina 3%Alabama 98%
East CarolinaPower ratingsAlabama
SP+Alabama by 24.9
-4.0
20.9
FPIAlabama by 28.4
-3.8
24.5
Elo (pts)Alabama by 20.1
-2.5
17.6
COREAlabama by 27.6
-1.1
26.5
WEPAAlabama by 19.4
-2.8
16.6
SRSAlabama by 32.2
-8.6
23.6
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Alabama's side
- 1998 · Alabama 23–22unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | East Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.240 | 0.542 |
| Explosiveness | 1.800 | 1.170 |
| Havoc | 0.034 | 0.200 |
| PPA | -0.170 | 0.364 |
| Field position | 72.300 | 71.600 |
Passing
- Keelon Russell · Alabama17/29 · 249 yds
- Mitch Griffis · East Carolina10/16 · 137 yds
- Emory Williams · East Carolina1/3 · 23 yds
- Austin Mack · Alabama1/2 · 4 yds