Sam Houston @ Missouri State
10/28/2026, 12:00:00 AM · ESPN2 · 65° · Wind 5 mph · Clear · 3–24 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -5.5 · total 52.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -5.0 | 52.0 |
Missouri State ML · Model 70% · Book 66%
Sam Houston travels 466 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Missouri State -6.0OC Total 50.00.6 pts vs market
Sam HoustonPower ratingsMissouri State
SP+Missouri State by 1.1
-18.0
-16.9
FPIMissouri State by 4.5
-19.3
-14.8
Elo (pts)Missouri State by 6.6
-17.5
-10.9
COREMissouri State by 1.1
-20.4
-19.4
WEPASam Houston by 0.5
-13.0
-13.5
SRSMissouri State by 2.7
-16.7
-14.0
Game recap
| Metric | Sam Houston | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.317 | 0.356 |
| Explosiveness | 1.570 | 1.540 |
| Havoc | 0.220 | 0.317 |
| PPA | -0.073 | 0.183 |
| Field position | 76.300 | 73.600 |
Passing
- DJ Bailey · Sam Houston20/35 · 258 yds · 11.7 aDOT
- Henry Belin IV · Missouri State12/18 · 184 yds · 8.1 aDOT