Missouri State @ Western Kentucky
10/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM · CBSSN · 71° · Wind 2 mph · Clear · 13–34 F
Our pick Western Kentucky +2.0Covered by 23.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -2.5 → now +2.0 · total 57.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 | 56.5 |
| Bovada | +2.0 | 57.0 |
Western Kentucky ML · Model 74% · Book 69% · value Western Kentucky
Missouri State +5 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Western Kentucky +2.0OC Spread Western Kentucky -7.0OC Total 53.58.9 pts vs market
Missouri StatePower ratingsWestern Kentucky
SP+Western Kentucky by 5.4
-16.9
-11.5
FPIWestern Kentucky by 0.9
-14.8
-13.9
Elo (pts)Western Kentucky by 0.8
-10.9
-10.1
COREWestern Kentucky by 0.8
-19.4
-18.6
WEPAWestern Kentucky by 2.1
-13.5
-11.4
SRSMissouri State by 0.1
-14.0
-14.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Western Kentucky's side
- 2025 · Western Kentucky 27–22unpriced
- 2006 · Western Kentucky 17–14unpriced
- 2005 · Western Kentucky 37–28unpriced
- 2004 · Western Kentucky 28–24unpriced
- 2003 · Western Kentucky 9–6unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.388 | 0.455 |
| Explosiveness | 1.290 | 1.280 |
| Havoc | 0.130 | 0.179 |
| PPA | 0.014 | 0.326 |
| Field position | 78.400 | 67 |
Passing
- Brock Glenn · Western Kentucky20/35 · 242 yds · 9.8 aDOT
- Skyler Locklear · Missouri State12/24 · 89 yds · 9.9 aDOT
- Henry Belin IV · Missouri State8/14 · 115 yds · 9.6 aDOT