Sam Houston @ Troy
9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 83° · Wind 3 mph · Cloudy · 21–24 F
Our pick Sam Houston +16.0Covered by 13.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -17.0 → now -16.0 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -16.5 | 53.0 |
| Draft Kings | -15.5 | 52.5 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 | 52.5 |
Troy ML · Model 88% · Book 87%
Sam Houston off a byeTroy off a byeSam Houston +18 days restSam Houston travels 571 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Troy
32
Our pick Sam Houston +16.0OC Spread Troy -10.0OC Total 53.06.0 pts vs market
Win probability
Sam Houston 12%Troy 88%
Sam HoustonPower ratingsTroy
SP+Troy by 14.0
-21.1
-7.1
FPITroy by 5.8
-14.6
-8.8
Elo (pts)Troy by 10.2
-13.6
-3.4
CORETroy by 2.1
-4.9
-2.9
Game recap
| Metric | Sam Houston | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.471 | 0.333 |
| Explosiveness | 1.210 | 1.660 |
| Havoc | 0.217 | 0.229 |
| PPA | 0.143 | 0.157 |
| Field position | 80.300 | 67.800 |
Passing
- Landyn Locke · Sam Houston30/46 · 335 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- Will Crowder · Troy12/24 · 165 yds · 14.0 aDOT