Troy @ Louisiana
10/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 70° · Wind 8 mph · Cloudy · 6–33 F
Our pick Louisiana -3.0Covered by 24.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -4.5 → now -3.0 · total 49.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 49.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 49.0 |
Louisiana ML · Model 79% · Book 61% · value Louisiana
Troy +4 days rest
Ratings matchup
Our pick Louisiana -3.0OC Spread Louisiana -9.0OC Total 54.06.1 pts vs market
TroyPower ratingsLouisiana
SP+Louisiana by 10.3
-9.9
0.4
FPILouisiana by 6.6
-9.2
-2.6
Elo (pts)Louisiana by 5.6
-5.8
-0.2
CORELouisiana by 12.5
-9.6
2.9
WEPALouisiana by 9.1
-5.1
4.0
SRSLouisiana by 13.6
-13.7
-0.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Louisiana's side
Game recap
| Metric | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.349 | 0.484 |
| Explosiveness | 0.970 | 0.940 |
| Havoc | 0.081 | 0.233 |
| PPA | -0.181 | 0.115 |
| Field position | 76.800 | 63.600 |
Passing
- D'Wayne' Winfield · Louisiana11/21 · 70 yds · 7.9 aDOT
- Will Crowder · Troy9/16 · 65 yds · 3.1 aDOT
- Tucker Kilcrease · Troy5/10 · 76 yds · 11.3 aDOT
- Daniel Beale · Louisiana2/2 · 38 yds · 18.5 aDOT