Georgia State @ Arkansas State
10/24/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 67° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 32–38 F
Our pick Arkansas State +2.5Covered by 8.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +1.5 → now +2.5 · total 58.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2.5 | 58.5 |
| Bovada | +2.5 | 58.5 |
Arkansas State ML · Model 60% · Book 45% · value Arkansas State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Arkansas State +2.5OC Spread Arkansas State -3.0OC Total 59.55.3 pts vs market
Georgia StatePower ratingsArkansas State
SP+Arkansas State by 2.2
-9.2
-7.0
FPIArkansas State by 0.6
-9.2
-8.6
Elo (pts)Georgia State by 0.1
-6.6
-6.8
COREGeorgia State by 5.0
-1.9
-6.9
WEPAGeorgia State by 3.4
1.3
-2.2
SRSGeorgia State by 2.3
-5.5
-7.8
Game recap
| Metric | Georgia State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.459 | 0.441 |
| Explosiveness | 1.350 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.118 | 0.131 |
| PPA | 0.238 | 0.313 |
| Field position | 76.100 | 68.800 |
Passing
- Trey Owens · Arkansas State21/32 · 309 yds · 11.3 aDOT
- Ayden Pereira · Georgia State12/19 · 163 yds · 11.1 aDOT
- Cameran Brown · Georgia State8/10 · 65 yds · 2.6 aDOT