Arkansas State @ Southern Miss
10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 65° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 23–13 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.0 → now +6.0 · total 62.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 | 61.5 |
| Bovada | +6.5 | 62.0 |
Southern Miss ML · Model 33% · Book 32%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Southern Miss +5.0OC Total 60.50.9 pts vs market
Arkansas StatePower ratingsSouthern Miss
SP+Arkansas State by 9.0
-7.0
-16.0
FPIArkansas State by 4.4
-8.6
-13.0
Elo (pts)Arkansas State by 4.7
-6.8
-11.4
COREArkansas State by 4.2
-6.9
-11.1
WEPAArkansas State by 8.3
-2.2
-10.5
SRSArkansas State by 6.2
-7.8
-14.0
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Southern Miss's side
- 2025 · Southern Miss 27–21unpriced
- 2024 · Southern Miss 28–44unpriced
- 2023 · Southern Miss 37–44unpriced
- 2022 · Southern Miss 20–19unpriced
- 2008 · Southern Miss 27–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.377 | 0.311 |
| Explosiveness | 0.860 | 1.320 |
| Havoc | 0.164 | 0.169 |
| PPA | 0.060 | -0.264 |
| Field position | 69.100 | 65.600 |
Passing
- Landy Lyddy · Southern Miss19/35 · 208 yds · 9.5 aDOT
- Trey Owens · Arkansas State18/26 · 170 yds · 7.2 aDOT