South Alabama @ Arkansas State
10/8/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 80° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 56–49 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -1.0 → now -3.0 · total 60.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 60.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 60.0 |
Arkansas State ML · Model 59% · Book 40% · value Arkansas State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Arkansas State -2.5OC Total 65.00.6 pts vs market
South AlabamaPower ratingsArkansas State
SP+Arkansas State by 4.5
-11.5
-7.0
FPIArkansas State by 1.1
-9.7
-8.6
Elo (pts)Arkansas State by 0.1
-6.8
-6.8
COREArkansas State by 3.1
-10.0
-6.9
WEPAArkansas State by 3.3
-5.4
-2.2
SRSArkansas State by 0.7
-8.5
-7.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Arkansas State's side
- 2025 · Arkansas State 15–14unpriced
- 2024 · Arkansas State 18–16unpriced
- 2023 · Arkansas State 14–21unpriced
- 2022 · Arkansas State 3–31unpriced
- 2021 · Arkansas State 13–31unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.452 | 0.634 |
| Explosiveness | 1.400 | 1.170 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.081 |
| PPA | 0.310 | 0.271 |
| Field position | 57.700 | 70.200 |
Passing
- Trey Owens · Arkansas State32/43 · 418 yds · 8.5 aDOT
- Jared Hollins · South Alabama6/10 · 76 yds · 10.3 aDOT