Arkansas State @ Louisiana
10/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM · ESPN+ · 79° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 20–23 F
Our pick Louisiana -6.5Did not cover by 3.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -5.5 · total 49.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -4.5 | 49.5 |
| Bovada | -6.0 | 48.5 |
Louisiana ML · Model 76% · Book 68% · value Louisiana
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Louisiana -6.5OC Spread Louisiana -8.0OC Total 54.52.7 pts vs market
Arkansas StatePower ratingsLouisiana
SP+Louisiana by 7.4
-7.0
0.4
FPILouisiana by 6.0
-8.6
-2.6
Elo (pts)Louisiana by 6.5
-6.8
-0.2
CORELouisiana by 9.9
-6.9
2.9
WEPALouisiana by 6.2
-2.2
4.0
SRSLouisiana by 7.7
-7.8
-0.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Louisiana's side
Game recap
| Metric | Arkansas State | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.418 | 0.569 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 0.890 |
| Havoc | 0.077 | 0.200 |
| PPA | 0.153 | 0.284 |
| Field position | 68.300 | 75.800 |
Passing
- Trey Owens · Arkansas State20/31 · 206 yds · 9.6 aDOT
- D'Wayne' Winfield · Louisiana18/21 · 189 yds · 8.1 aDOT
- Drew Dickey · Arkansas State3/3 · 61 yds · 13.3 aDOT