Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
10/3/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 69° · Wind 5 mph · Clear · 24–20 F
Our pick Miami (OH) -15.5Did not cover by 19.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -15.5 → now -11.5 · total 42.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -12.0 | 43.0 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 | 41.5 |
Miami (OH) ML · Model 91% · Book 81% · value Miami (OH)
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Miami (OH) -15.5OC Spread Miami (OH) -16.5OC Total 49.05.3 pts vs market
Bowling GreenPower ratingsMiami (OH)
SP+Miami (OH) by 14.0
-18.2
-4.2
FPIMiami (OH) by 7.8
-17.6
-9.8
Elo (pts)Miami (OH) by 1.3
-11.0
-9.7
COREMiami (OH) by 13.0
-13.8
-0.8
WEPAMiami (OH) by 4.3
-8.5
-4.2
SRSMiami (OH) by 6.3
-15.0
-8.7
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Miami (OH)'s side
- 2024 · Miami (OH) 28–12unpriced
- 2023 · Miami (OH) 27–0unpriced
- 2022 · Miami (OH) 13–17unpriced
- 2021 · Miami (OH) 34–7unpriced
- 2019 · Miami (OH) 44–3unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.492 | 0.377 |
| Explosiveness | 1 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.148 | 0.169 |
| PPA | 0.118 | 0.012 |
| Field position | 81.400 | 63.500 |
Passing
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green25/37 · 305 yds · 5.0 aDOT
- Caleb Heavner · Miami (OH)17/24 · 198 yds · 8.7 aDOT