Sacramento State @ Ball State
10/24/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 69° · Wind 3 mph · Cloudy · 17–34 F
Our pick Sacramento State +14.5Did not cover by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -9.5 → now -14.5 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -14.5 | 51.5 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 | 51.5 |
Ball State ML · Model 88% · Book 81% · value Ball State
Sacramento State travels 545 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Sacramento State +14.5OC Spread Ball State -14.0OC Total 52.00.3 pts vs market
Sacramento StatePower ratingsBall State
SP+Ball State by 9.0
-29.1
-20.1
FPIBall State by 10.1
-30.1
-20.0
Elo (pts)Ball State by 2.3
-18.4
-16.1
COREBall State by 12.5
-23.8
-11.3
WEPABall State by 7.3
-16.0
-8.7
SRSBall State by 9.9
-25.3
-15.4
Game recap
| Metric | Sacramento State | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.271 | 0.451 |
| Explosiveness | 1.320 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.127 | 0.136 |
| PPA | -0.117 | 0.235 |
| Field position | 80.400 | 64.500 |
Passing
- Keldric Luster · Ball State14/27 · 234 yds · 11.6 aDOT
- Jackson Sharman · Sacramento State17/27 · 187 yds · 6.0 aDOT
- Brian Salazar · Sacramento State2/4 · 25 yds · 18.3 aDOT