Ball State @ Bowling Green
10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 50° · Wind 2 mph · Clear · 32–31 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -6.5 · total 46.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -6.0 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | -6.5 | 46.5 |
Bowling Green ML · Model 75% · Book 69% · value Bowling Green
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Bowling Green -7.5OC Total 49.51.3 pts vs market
Ball StatePower ratingsBowling Green
SP+Bowling Green by 1.9
-20.1
-18.2
FPIBowling Green by 2.4
-20.0
-17.6
Elo (pts)Bowling Green by 5.1
-16.1
-11.0
COREBall State by 2.4
-11.3
-13.8
WEPABowling Green by 0.2
-8.7
-8.5
SRSBowling Green by 0.4
-15.4
-15.0
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Bowling Green's side
- 2024 · Bowling Green 38–13unpriced
- 2023 · Bowling Green 24–21unpriced
- 2015 · Bowling Green 48–10unpriced
- 2014 · Bowling Green 24–41unpriced
- 2009 · Bowling Green 31–17unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.529 | 0.441 |
| Explosiveness | 1.170 | 1.190 |
| Havoc | 0.220 | 0.118 |
| PPA | 0.221 | 0.116 |
| Field position | 79.300 | 72.100 |
Passing
- Keldric Luster · Ball State16/24 · 195 yds · 7.3 aDOT
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green17/24 · 215 yds · 5.7 aDOT