Sacramento State @ Bowling Green
10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 73° · Wind 6 mph · Cloudy · 10–38 F
Our pick Bowling Green -9.5Covered by 18.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -7.0 → now -9.5 · total 43.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -9.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -9.5 | 43.0 |
Bowling Green ML · Model 87% · Book 72% · value Bowling Green
Sacramento State off a byeSacramento State +7 days restSacramento State travels 640 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Bowling Green -9.5OC Spread Bowling Green -13.0OC Total 47.03.5 pts vs market
Sacramento StatePower ratingsBowling Green
SP+Bowling Green by 10.9
-29.1
-18.2
FPIBowling Green by 12.5
-30.1
-17.6
Elo (pts)Bowling Green by 7.4
-18.4
-11.0
COREBowling Green by 10.0
-23.8
-13.8
WEPABowling Green by 7.5
-16.0
-8.5
SRSBowling Green by 10.3
-25.3
-15.0
Game recap
| Metric | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.383 | 0.480 |
| Explosiveness | 1.160 | 1.390 |
| Havoc | 0.080 | 0.255 |
| PPA | -0.018 | 0.220 |
| Field position | 73.900 | 66.800 |
Passing
- Jackson Sharman · Sacramento State13/28 · 145 yds · 9.6 aDOT
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green12/16 · 98 yds · 7.6 aDOT
- Austin Novosad · Bowling Green2/2 · 21 yds · 10.0 aDOT