Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts
10/3/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 72° · Wind 2 mph · Clear · 38–14 F
Our pick Massachusetts -3.5Did not cover by 27.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -3.5 → now -6.0 · total 49.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -6.0 | 49.0 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 | 49.5 |
Massachusetts ML · Model 76% · Book 65% · value Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan travels 567 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Massachusetts -3.5OC Spread Massachusetts -8.0OC Total 48.52.4 pts vs market
Eastern MichiganPower ratingsMassachusetts
SP+Massachusetts by 3.5
-14.6
-11.1
FPIMassachusetts by 1.3
-16.1
-14.7
Elo (pts)Eastern Michigan by 3.9
-11.2
-15.1
COREMassachusetts by 7.1
-15.9
-8.7
WEPAMassachusetts by 8.1
-11.8
-3.7
SRSMassachusetts by 0.2
-14.1
-13.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Massachusetts's side
- 2024 · Massachusetts 14–28unpriced
- 2023 · Massachusetts 17–19unpriced
- 2022 · Massachusetts 13–20unpriced
- 2021 · Massachusetts 28–42unpriced
- 2015 · Massachusetts 28–17unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.561 | 0.476 |
| Explosiveness | 1.190 | 1.060 |
| Havoc | 0.190 | 0.105 |
| PPA | 0.369 | -0.023 |
| Field position | 67.100 | 75.100 |
Passing
- Noah Kim · Eastern Michigan21/30 · 234 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- William Watson III · Massachusetts20/27 · 210 yds · 7.0 aDOT