Toledo @ Ball State
10/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 68° · Wind 8 mph · Clear · 39–24 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +17.5 → now +21.0 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +20.5 | 52.5 |
| Bovada | +21.0 | 52.0 |
Ball State ML · Model 5% · Book 11% · value Toledo
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Toledo
36
OC Spread Ball State +20.5OC Total 51.50.4 pts vs market
ToledoPower ratingsBall State
SP+Toledo by 22.1
2.0
-20.1
FPIToledo by 17.5
-2.5
-20.0
Elo (pts)Toledo by 18.2
2.2
-16.1
COREToledo by 17.1
5.8
-11.3
WEPAToledo by 13.9
5.1
-8.7
SRSToledo by 15.2
-0.2
-15.4
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from Ball State's side
- 2025 · Ball State 9–38unpriced
- 2023 · Ball State 6–13unpriced
- 2022 · Ball State 21–28unpriced
- 2021 · Ball State 12–22unpriced
- 2020 · Ball State 27–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.414 | 0.377 |
| Explosiveness | 1.340 | 1.510 |
| Havoc | 0.164 | 0.115 |
| PPA | 0.192 | 0.047 |
| Field position | 69.500 | 73.700 |
Passing
- John Alan Richter · Toledo19/35 · 201 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- Keldric Luster · Ball State21/33 · 224 yds · 5.7 aDOT
- Tyler Mizzell · Ball State1/2 · 14 yds · 7.0 aDOT