Option Country
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Massachusetts @ Sacramento State

9/27/2026, 1:00:00 AM · ESPN+ · 73° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 35–6 F

Our pick Massachusetts -6.0Covered by 23.0

Line movement

Home spread. Open +6.0 → now +6.0 · total 49.5

Books

BookSpreadTotal
DraftKings+6.049.5
Bovada+6.049.5

Sacramento State ML · Model 10% · Book 34% · value Massachusetts

Massachusetts travels 1022 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Massachusetts -6.0OC Spread Sacramento State +15.5OC Total 49.09.6 pts vs market
MassachusettsPower ratingsSacramento State
SP+Massachusetts by 18.0
-11.1
-29.1
FPIMassachusetts by 15.4
-14.7
-30.1
Elo (pts)Massachusetts by 3.3
-15.1
-18.4
COREMassachusetts by 15.1
-8.7
-23.8
WEPAMassachusetts by 12.3
-3.7
-16.0
SRSMassachusetts by 11.4
-13.9
-25.3

Game recap

MetricMassachusettsSacramento State
Success rate0.4090.490
Explosiveness1.3700.820
Havoc0.2160.091
PPA0.333-0.048
Field position72.90073.800

Passing

  • Jackson Sharman · Sacramento State24/43 · 221 yds · 7.3 aDOT
  • William Watson III · Massachusetts11/16 · 101 yds · 9.8 aDOT

Win probability