Massachusetts @ Sacramento State
9/27/2026, 1:00:00 AM · ESPN+ · 73° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 35–6 F
Our pick Massachusetts -6.0Covered by 23.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +6.0 → now +6.0 · total 49.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +6.0 | 49.5 |
| Bovada | +6.0 | 49.5 |
Sacramento State ML · Model 10% · Book 34% · value Massachusetts
Massachusetts travels 1022 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Massachusetts -6.0OC Spread Sacramento State +15.5OC Total 49.09.6 pts vs market
MassachusettsPower ratingsSacramento State
SP+Massachusetts by 18.0
-11.1
-29.1
FPIMassachusetts by 15.4
-14.7
-30.1
Elo (pts)Massachusetts by 3.3
-15.1
-18.4
COREMassachusetts by 15.1
-8.7
-23.8
WEPAMassachusetts by 12.3
-3.7
-16.0
SRSMassachusetts by 11.4
-13.9
-25.3
Game recap
| Metric | Massachusetts | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.409 | 0.490 |
| Explosiveness | 1.370 | 0.820 |
| Havoc | 0.216 | 0.091 |
| PPA | 0.333 | -0.048 |
| Field position | 72.900 | 73.800 |
Passing
- Jackson Sharman · Sacramento State24/43 · 221 yds · 7.3 aDOT
- William Watson III · Massachusetts11/16 · 101 yds · 9.8 aDOT
