Ball State @ Liberty
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 82° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 15–51 F
Our pick Liberty -14.5Covered by 21.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -14.5 → now -14.5 · total 49.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -14.5 | 49.5 |
| Bovada | -14.5 | 49.0 |
| Draft Kings | -14.5 | 49.5 |
Liberty ML · Model 96% · Book 83% · value Liberty
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Liberty -14.5OC Spread Liberty -21.5OC Total 53.06.9 pts vs market
Ball StatePower ratingsLiberty
SP+Liberty by 27.6
-20.1
7.5
FPILiberty by 25.0
-20.0
5.0
Elo (pts)Liberty by 29.4
-16.1
13.4
CORELiberty by 30.6
-11.3
19.2
WEPALiberty by 21.1
-8.7
12.4
SRSLiberty by 22.4
-15.4
7.0
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Liberty's side
- 2010 · Liberty 27–23unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Ball State | Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.395 | 0.534 |
| Explosiveness | 1.090 | 1.460 |
| Havoc | 0.103 | 0.256 |
| PPA | 0.096 | 0.558 |
| Field position | 72.800 | 62.300 |
Passing
- Keldric Luster · Ball State10/21 · 93 yds · 6.9 aDOT
- Deshawn Purdie · Liberty13/20 · 211 yds · 15.5 aDOT
- Jaylen Henderson · Liberty3/4 · 37 yds · 6.0 aDOT