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Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan

8/29/2026, 10:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 79° · Wind 6 mph · Cloudy · 17–28 F

Our pick Sacramento State +9.0Did not cover by 2.0

Our total Under 52.5Covered by 7.5

Line movement

Home spread. Open -8.5 → now -9.5 · total 53.0

Books

BookSpreadTotal
Bovada-9.053.0
DraftKings-9.552.5

Eastern Michigan ML · Model 62% · Book 74% · value Sacramento State

Sacramento State off a byeEastern Michigan off a byeSacramento State +81 days restSacramento State travels 699 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Sacramento State +9.0Our total Under 52.5OC Spread Eastern Michigan -18.5OC Total 49.59.3 pts vs market

Win probability

Sacramento State 38%Eastern Michigan 62%
Sacramento StatePower ratingsEastern Michigan
SP+Eastern Michigan by 14.5
-29.1
-14.6
FPIEastern Michigan by 14.0
-30.1
-16.1
Elo (pts)Eastern Michigan by 7.2
-18.4
-11.2
COREEastern Michigan by 7.9
-23.8
-15.9
WEPAEastern Michigan by 4.2
-16.0
-11.8
SRSEastern Michigan by 11.2
-25.3
-14.1

Game recap

MetricSacramento StateEastern Michigan
Success rate0.3490.420
Explosiveness1.0301.260
Havoc0.1590.222
PPA-0.0710.085
Field position68.80071.900

Passing

  • Carson Conklin · Sacramento State26/47 · 233 yds · 6.7 aDOT
  • Noah Kim · Eastern Michigan27/38 · 279 yds · 9.8 aDOT

Win probability