New Mexico State @ Florida State
8/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM · CW · 81° · Wind 0 mph · Heavy Rain Shower · 17–34 F
Our pick New Mexico State +31.5Covered by 14.5
Our total Under 53.5Covered by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -31.5 → now -31.0 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Draft Kings | -30.5 | 53.5 |
| DraftKings | -31.5 | 53.5 |
| Bovada | -31.0 | 53.5 |
Florida State ML · Model 45% · Book 96% · value New Mexico State
New Mexico State off a byeFlorida State off a byeNew Mexico State travels 1327 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick New Mexico State +31.5Our total Under 53.5OC Spread Florida State -24.0OC Total 51.07.2 pts vs market
Win probability
New Mexico State 55%Florida State 45%
New Mexico StatePower ratingsFlorida State
SP+Florida State by 22.7
-15.0
7.7
FPIFlorida State by 20.7
-13.0
7.7
Elo (pts)Florida State by 11.8
-9.6
2.3
COREFlorida State by 11.1
-8.3
2.8
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Florida State's side
- 1964 · Florida State 36–0unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | New Mexico State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.345 | 0.484 |
| Explosiveness | 1.750 | 1.320 |
| Havoc | 0.094 | 0.190 |
| PPA | 0.193 | 0.388 |
| Field position | 76.100 | 70.400 |
Passing
- Trey Hedden · New Mexico State26/42 · 272 yds · 11.3 aDOT
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State17/27 · 202 yds · 6.3 aDOT
- Terrell Washington Jr. · New Mexico State0/1 · 0 yds · 18.0 aDOT