North Dakota State @ New Mexico
10/25/2026, 2:00:00 AM · CW · 60° · Wind 3 mph · Light Rain · 16–21 F
Our pick New Mexico -4.5Covered by 0.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -3.5 → now -5.0 · total 39.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -4.5 | 39.5 |
| Bovada | -5.0 | 39.5 |
New Mexico ML · Model 76% · Book 63% · value New Mexico
North Dakota State travels 963 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick New Mexico -4.5OC Spread New Mexico -8.0OC Total 43.53.1 pts vs market
North Dakota StatePower ratingsNew Mexico
SP+New Mexico by 0.7
8.6
9.3
FPINew Mexico by 6.0
0.1
6.2
Elo (pts)New Mexico by 1.6
5.1
6.7
CORENew Mexico by 6.4
5.6
12.0
WEPANew Mexico by 2.6
4.7
7.3
SRSNew Mexico by 3.0
2.6
5.6
Game recap
| Metric | North Dakota State | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.274 | 0.357 |
| Explosiveness | 1.530 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.232 | 0.210 |
| PPA | -0.110 | 0.050 |
| Field position | 70.200 | 69.700 |
Passing
- Nathan Hayes · North Dakota State17/33 · 198 yds · 13.0 aDOT
- Toa Faavae · New Mexico8/14 · 92 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- Preston Brown · North Dakota State0/2 · 0 yds · 18.0 aDOT