Central Michigan @ New Mexico
9/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM · FS1 · 86° · Wind 6 mph · Light Rain · 7–38 F
Our pick New Mexico -11.0Covered by 20.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.5 → now -11.5 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -11.0 | 47.0 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 | 47.5 |
New Mexico ML · Model 76% · Book 80% · value Central Michigan
Central Michigan off a byeNew Mexico off a byeCentral Michigan travels 1302 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick New Mexico -11.0OC Spread New Mexico -26.5OC Total 45.515.1 pts vs market
Win probability
Central Michigan 25%New Mexico 76%
Central MichiganPower ratingsNew Mexico
SP+New Mexico by 26.0
-16.7
9.3
FPINew Mexico by 20.8
-14.6
6.2
Elo (pts)New Mexico by 17.7
-11.0
6.7
CORENew Mexico by 25.5
-13.5
12.0
WEPANew Mexico by 13.2
-5.9
7.3
SRSNew Mexico by 18.7
-13.1
5.6
Game recap
| Metric | Central Michigan | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.192 | 0.533 |
| Explosiveness | 0.920 | 0.910 |
| Havoc | 0.100 | 0.385 |
| PPA | -0.265 | 0.297 |
| Field position | 74.800 | 65.900 |
Passing
- Luke Moga · New Mexico13/17 · 116 yds · 7.9 aDOT
- Jadyn Glasser · Central Michigan4/10 · 16 yds · 15.3 aDOT
- Toa Faavae · New Mexico4/8 · 43 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- Angel H Flores · Central Michigan3/6 · 14 yds · 3.8 aDOT