San José State @ No. 14 USC
8/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM · NBC · 94° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 26–42 F
Our pick San José State +37.5Covered by 21.5
Our total Under 61.0Did not cover by 7.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -38.5 → now -37.5 · total 61.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -37.0 | 60.5 |
| DraftKings | -37.5 | 61.5 |
USC ML · Model 95% · Book 98%
San José State off a byeUSC off a byeSan José State +31 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick San José State +37.5Our total Under 61.0OC Spread USC -28.5OC Total 51.08.8 pts vs market
Win probability
San José State 5%USC 95%
San José StatePower ratingsUSC
SP+USC by 25.5
-11.3
14.2
FPIUSC by 26.9
-11.9
15.0
Elo (pts)USC by 17.5
-5.4
12.1
COREUSC by 17.0
-7.1
9.9
WEPAUSC by 8.9
-1.5
7.4
SRSUSC by 21.9
-11.4
10.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from USC's side
Game recap
| Metric | San José State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.375 | 0.672 |
| Explosiveness | 1.220 | 0.870 |
| Havoc | 0.082 | 0.175 |
| PPA | 0.123 | 0.406 |
| Field position | 72.700 | 65.700 |
Passing
- Luke Weaver · San José State21/32 · 234 yds · 9.9 aDOT
- Jayden Maiava · USC25/29 · 286 yds · 6.9 aDOT
- Jonas Williams · USC5/7 · 55 yds · 9.4 aDOT