San José State @ No. 14 USC
8/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM · NBC · 94° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 26–42 F
Our pick San José State +37.5Covered by 21.5
Our total Under 61.0Did not cover by 7.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -38.5 → now -37.5 · total 61.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Draft Kings | -37.5 | 61.5 |
| DraftKings | -37.5 | 61.5 |
| Bovada | -37.0 | 60.5 |
USC ML · Model 95% · Book 98%
San José State off a byeUSC off a byeSan José State +31 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick San José State +37.5Our total Under 61.0OC Spread USC -32.5OC Total 55.04.8 pts vs market
Win probability
San José State 5%USC 95%
San José StatePower ratingsUSC
SP+USC by 32.0
-12.5
19.5
FPIUSC by 29.5
-11.0
18.5
Elo (pts)USC by 17.2
-3.7
13.5
COREUSC by 14.8
-0.6
14.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from USC's side
Game recap
| Metric | San José State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.375 | 0.672 |
| Explosiveness | 1.220 | 0.870 |
| Havoc | 0.082 | 0.175 |
| PPA | 0.123 | 0.406 |
| Field position | 72.700 | 65.700 |
Passing
- Luke Weaver · San José State21/32 · 234 yds · 9.9 aDOT
- Jayden Maiava · USC25/29 · 286 yds · 6.9 aDOT
- Jonas Williams · USC5/7 · 55 yds · 9.4 aDOT