South Florida @ UTSA
10/8/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN · Indoors · 24–31 F
Our pick South Florida +6.5Did not cover by 0.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -5.5 · total 49.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5 | 49.5 |
| Bovada | -5.5 | 49.5 |
UTSA ML · Model 63% · Book 68% · value South Florida
South Florida travels 973 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick South Florida +6.5OC Spread UTSA -3.5OC Total 54.01.9 pts vs market
South FloridaPower ratingsUTSA
SP+UTSA by 1.3
2.2
3.5
FPIUTSA by 2.7
-2.2
0.4
Elo (pts)South Florida by 2.0
5.5
3.5
COREUTSA by 2.1
-2.5
-0.4
WEPAUTSA by 3.5
-1.4
2.1
SRSUTSA by 4.0
-1.6
2.4
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 1-1 · ATS 0-0 from UTSA's side
Game recap
| Metric | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.426 | 0.564 |
| Explosiveness | 1.190 | 1.030 |
| Havoc | 0.051 | 0.049 |
| PPA | 0.211 | 0.312 |
| Field position | 71.400 | 78 |
Passing
- Owen McCown · UTSA22/31 · 209 yds · 5.3 aDOT
- David Amador · UTSA0/1 · 0 yds · 12.0 aDOT
- Luke Kromenhoek · South Florida0/1 · 0 yds · 6.0 aDOT
- Michael Van Buren Jr. · South Florida1/1 · 42 yds