South Florida @ Bowling Green
9/26/2026, 9:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 69° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 14–6 F
Our pick South Florida -17.5Did not cover by 9.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +15.5 → now +18.0 · total 49.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +17.5 | 48.5 |
| Bovada | +18.0 | 49.0 |
Bowling Green ML · Model 5% · Book 13% · value South Florida
South Florida travels 928 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick South Florida -17.5OC Spread Bowling Green +21.5OC Total 50.03.6 pts vs market
South FloridaPower ratingsBowling Green
SP+South Florida by 20.4
2.2
-18.2
FPISouth Florida by 15.3
-2.2
-17.6
Elo (pts)South Florida by 16.5
5.5
-11.0
CORESouth Florida by 11.2
-2.5
-13.8
WEPASouth Florida by 7.1
-1.4
-8.5
SRSSouth Florida by 13.4
-1.6
-15.0
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 0-1 · ATS 0-0 from Bowling Green's side
- 2002 · Bowling Green 7–29unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | South Florida | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.453 | 0.323 |
| Explosiveness | 1.030 | 0.890 |
| Havoc | 0.226 | 0.245 |
| PPA | 0.032 | -0.173 |
| Field position | 70.800 | 65.600 |
Passing
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green16/28 · 122 yds · 8.6 aDOT