Arkansas State @ Memphis
9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 97° · Wind 4 mph · Fair · 24–42 F
Our pick Memphis -10.5Covered by 7.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -8.5 → now -10.5 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -10.5 | 52.0 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 | 52.5 |
Memphis ML · Model 72% · Book 75%
Arkansas State off a byeArkansas State +254 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Memphis -10.5OC Spread Memphis -14.5OC Total 59.04.1 pts vs market
Win probability
Arkansas State 28%Memphis 72%
Arkansas StatePower ratingsMemphis
SP+Memphis by 14.0
-7.0
7.0
FPIMemphis by 12.3
-8.6
3.7
Elo (pts)Memphis by 14.2
-6.8
7.4
COREMemphis by 16.7
-6.9
9.7
WEPAMemphis by 8.5
-2.2
6.4
SRSMemphis by 9.3
-7.8
1.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Memphis's side
Game recap
| Metric | Arkansas State | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.500 | 0.492 |
| Explosiveness | 1.260 | 1.490 |
| Havoc | 0.092 | 0.167 |
| PPA | 0.125 | 0.491 |
| Field position | 68.800 | 77.600 |
Passing
- Trey Owens · Arkansas State21/30 · 325 yds · 9.4 aDOT
- Marcus Stokes · Memphis12/15 · 188 yds · 12.3 aDOT