Option Country
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Memphis @ UNLV

8/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM · FOX · Indoors · 27–21 F

Our pick Memphis +4.5Covered by 10.5

Our total Over 55.5Did not cover by 7.5

Line movement

Home spread. Open -4.0 → now -5.0 · total 55.5

Books

BookSpreadTotal
Bovada-5.055.5
DraftKings-4.555.5

UNLV ML · Model 60% · Book 62%

Memphis off a byeUNLV off a byeMemphis +4 days restMemphis travels 1414 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Memphis +4.5Our total Over 55.5OC Spread UNLV +3.5OC Total 56.58.3 pts vs market

Win probability

Memphis 41%UNLV 60%
MemphisPower ratingsUNLV
SP+Memphis by 9.2
7.0
-2.2
FPIMemphis by 7.1
3.7
-3.4
Elo (pts)Memphis by 8.4
7.4
-0.9
COREMemphis by 15.0
9.7
-5.3
WEPAMemphis by 8.1
6.4
-1.7
SRSMemphis by 7.7
1.5
-6.2

Game recap

MetricMemphisUNLV
Success rate0.4750.351
Explosiveness1.0901.460
Havoc0.1950.119
PPA0.2880.108
Field position7774.700

Passing

  • Jackson Arnold · UNLV25/38 · 291 yds · 8.4 aDOT
  • Marcus Stokes · Memphis15/26 · 223 yds · 12.3 aDOT

Win probability